KYIV, Ukraine: The victory plan that President Volodymyr Zelensky will present to the White House this week asks the Biden administration to do something it has not achieved in the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine: act quickly to support Kyiv鈥檚 campaign.
While Western dawdling has amplified Ukraine鈥檚 losses, some Ukrainian officials, diplomats and analysts fear Kyiv鈥檚 aim to have the plan implemented before a new US president takes office in January may be out of reach.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, reportedly briefed on the plan, said it 鈥渃an work鈥� but many privately question how.
The specifics of Zelensky鈥檚 blueprint have been kept under wraps until it can be formally presented to President Joe Biden, but contours of the plan have emerged, including the need for fast action on decisions Western allies have been mulling since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
It includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, according to Zelensky鈥檚 chief of staff Andrii Yermak 鈥� a principal demand of Kyiv and Moscow鈥檚 key point of contention. Western allies, including the US, have been skeptical about this option.
Zelensky has said he will also seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine鈥檚 supporters.
鈥淧artners often say, 鈥榃e will be with Ukraine until its victory.鈥� Now we clearly show how Ukraine can win and what is needed for this. Very specific things,鈥� Zelensky told reporters ahead of the trip. 鈥淟et鈥檚 do all this today, while all the officials who want victory for Ukraine are still in official positions.鈥�
Meanwhile, outnumbered Ukrainian forces face grinding battles against one of the world鈥檚 most powerful armies in the east. As Zelensky pitches his plan to Biden on Thursday, Ukrainian servicemen will be grappling to hold defensive lines in the key logistics point of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. For some of them, it is essential that Biden buys into Zelensky鈥檚 plan.
鈥淚 hope that allies will provide us with what we need,鈥� said Kyanin, a soldier fighting in the Donetsk region. 鈥淣ot 10 or 31 tanks, but a thousand tanks, thousands of weapons and ammunition.鈥�
Kyiv sets the terms
The victory plan is Kyiv鈥檚 response to rising pressure from Western allies and war-weary Ukrainians to negotiate a ceasefire. A deal with Russia would almost certainly be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of lives in the conflict.
Unless, Kyiv calculates, its western partners act quickly. Ukraine鈥檚 allies have routinely mulled over requests for weapons and capabilities, granting them often after their strategic value is diminished. Under the plan, from October to December, they must dramatically strengthen Kyiv鈥檚 hand.
The plan comprises military, political, diplomatic and economic elements.
Aside from the demand for NATO membership, it seeks to bolster Ukraine鈥檚 defenses, including air defense capabilities, enough to force Moscow to negotiate.
A request to ramp up sanctions to weaken Russia鈥檚 economy and defense industry is also expected.
Zelensky has said without elaborating that Kyiv鈥檚 military incursion into Kursk, in Russia, is part of the victory plan. That offensive, which embarrassed President Vladimir Putin as the Kremlin scrambled to counterattack, has not yielded any strategic gains. But it has shown the Russian public and doubtful Western allies that Russian is not invincible and Kyiv still has offensive capabilities despite being battered on the eastern front.
The cost of inaction
Zelensky has described his proposal as 鈥渁 bridge to the Peace Summit鈥� that he has proposed for November but that Russia says it will not attend. No international players capable of swaying Moscow agreed to his earlier 10-point peace plan, which calls for the full withdrawal of Russian forces.
Ukrainian presidential advisers and lawmakers have told The Associated Press that Kyiv will only agree to a ceasefire with Russia if Putin鈥檚 ability to invade the country again is crippled. Any other arrangement would not benefit Ukraine鈥檚 future or honor the sacrifices of its people.
Ukrainian officials have rejected competing proposals from China and Brazil, believing they would merely pause the war and give Moscow time to consolidate its battered army and defense industry.
鈥淚t will lead to a freezing of the conflict, nothing more: Occupied territories are considered occupied. Sanctions against Russia remain. The intensity of war drops significantly but it continues,鈥� said one presidential adviser, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
He predicted that Moscow would recalibrate and attack again, likely from Mykolaiv and Odesa in the south, 鈥渨ithin two, three, four years, or maybe even earlier, depending on the state of Russia. That鈥檚 the scenario.鈥�
Russia鈥檚 conditions for ending the war are spelled out in a 17-page draft agreement penned in April 2022.
The time element
Prolonging the status quo will only play into Russia鈥檚 hands in the long-term, analysts said.
鈥淯kraine will lose more than 1,000 square kilometers (600 miles) by the end of the year,鈥� if current conditions continue, said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst for Information Resistance, a Kyiv-based think tank. 鈥淲e need to understand that if (allies) don鈥檛 defend Ukraine, it will make this war last for many more years, and finally, make it possible for us to lose the war,鈥� he said.
Time will also allow Russian forces to build up its weapons industry, as it did at a frightening pace in the last year, said Kovalenko.
鈥淲e lack every kind of weapon, and Russia produces their weapons 24 hours a day,鈥� Kovalenko said.
Russia has updated its aerial glide bombs, for which Ukraine has no effective countermeasure. They now weigh 3,000 pounds, which is six times bigger than when they were first used in the battle for Bakhmut in 2022, he said.
Soldiers in eastern Ukraine and analysts said long-range Western weapons would be the most effective countermeasure against glide bombs, which have been deployed along the frontline, including in Vuhledar. The mining town鈥檚 fall would compromise supply lines feeding the southern front and strike a devastating blow to Ukrainian morale.
In his final address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden urged Ukraine鈥檚 backers to stand firm.
鈥淲e cannot grow weary,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e cannot look away.鈥�